Why "All Time Lows" Don't Matter


Some of our readers, listeners and viewers won’t like this topic, however it’s our job not to deliver what you ‘like’, but what you need to know! So there it is! You’ve read the title so have clearly realised we are coming out and saying it. All these headlines of ‘All Time Lows’, beyond a high level market view, literally mean absolutely nothing and you should really care less. Each and every one of these titles literally does not benefit you as a buyer or seller in any way. Now sure you can put some technicalities in there such as:

  • All time lows show the state of the market, or
  • All time lows shows sellers they need to be more negotiable

However, it does not take a genius to work out the market can be going through a correction and prices were going down, therefore answering the above two statements.

No, in fact many of the people out there involved in the market, in one way, shape or form, are hanging on to it “being the lowest sales amounts of June since the year 2000’ and subjects of the like. But the reality is, the market is what it is. Just because it may be the lowest since June 2000, doesn’t mean prices are now reverting to the same as in June 2000. It doesn’t mean it’s an all time low so sellers have to automatically take off another 10% from their price. Oh wait it’s an all time low in 30 years so now they have to take off another 5%!? That’s crazy thinking.

It’s media talk. It’s AT BEST, to alert you to the overall level of the market from a very very high level. It doesn’t divulge anything further than that. In fact, it doesn’t even help you when it comes to price offerings. Recent comparable sales, for the majority, make up market value in our world. Not record numbers. I challenge you to place a low ball offer on a property and put your justification as “It’s the lowest sale amounts in 19 years”, and see how successful you are here.

Now for those of you who are not actively monitoring the real estate market, admittedly it’s a good high level indicator for you to passively see what’s going on without taking too much of your time. However if you are actively in the game either as an employee, buying or selling then you are going to be much more in the trenches and need to be working with much more detail in order to navigate the path to success. Anyone who has bought or sold in the past will know this themselves.
Let’s take a look at some headlines this year:

  • June sales, lowest since 2000
  • May sales lower than the 10 year average
  • March sales amounts 43.6% below the 10 year average

However damaging these headlines are, they don’t tell you the amount you should be paying for a home. They don’t tell you how fast or slow detached homes in Grandview-Woodlands are selling at lately. They also don’t tell you if that new listed home is overpriced or an absolute steal that you should be taking advantage of ASAP.

The reality is, if the comparables show a 3 bedroom house in Mount Pleasant is worth $1.2M, it doesn’t matter whether the market is at a 10 year low or a 10 year high, the market value for that home is $1.2M and that’s that.

So the moral of the story is, use these headlines to get a very high level idea of where the market is, but beyond that, do not rely on them for anything else. As always, the right research is key to success in this market.

Thanks for reading along this week! Don’t forget to get in touch with your topics you want covered. Thank you Doug for reaching out and asking us the above!

Until next week,

Jay Mcinnes
T: 604.771.4606

Ben Robinson
T: 604.353.8523